A statistical edge on MLB's first inning

We predict whether a run scores in the first inning of every MLB game, using starting pitcher form, real lineups, park, weather, and umpire data. Each day we publish whichever side the model likes most: NRFI (no run) or YRFI (a run scores). Every number on this site comes from a real backtest: the model is only ever graded on games it hadn't seen yet, 7642 games from 2023-07-01 to 2026-07-27.